国际观察丨泡沫、壁垒、裁员——从跨国企业季报看世界经济风险与挑战

Group 1: AI Bubble Concerns - Concerns about an AI bubble are rising as the enthusiasm for investment in AI infrastructure has cooled despite strong performances from companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft [2][3] - Nvidia's third-quarter revenue and profit exceeded expectations, but analysts believe its results do not fully alleviate market concerns about an AI bubble [2] - A survey by Bank of America indicates that over half of fund managers believe AI stocks are in a bubble, with high valuations posing risks to financial markets [3] Group 2: High Tariff Barriers Impacting Performance - The impact of U.S. tariff policies has become more pronounced, negatively affecting the quarterly performance and annual forecasts of many export-oriented companies in Europe and Japan [4][5] - European luxury goods companies are facing significant revenue declines, with LVMH's fashion and leather goods revenue down approximately 8% and Kering's Gucci brand down about 22% year-over-year [4] - German automakers are also suffering, with Porsche's automotive business profit plummeting nearly 99% and Volkswagen's operating profit down 58% due to high tariffs [4] Group 3: Consumer Slowdown and Layoff Trends - U.S. consumer sentiment is notably low, with major companies announcing significant layoffs, contributing to economic uncertainty [6][7] - Kraft Heinz's CEO noted that consumer sentiment is at one of its lowest points in decades, indicating a split in consumer spending behavior [6] - Layoffs have reached nearly 1 million in the U.S. in the first nine months of the year, the highest since 2020, with major companies like Amazon and Target laying off approximately 80,000 employees [7]