瑞银报告：香港楼市正处于转折点 料3-5年内回升

Group 1: Hong Kong Residential Market - The Hong Kong residential market is at a turning point, with expectations of an upward cycle in the next 3 to 5 years, supported by strong recovery in both new and second-hand property transactions and a peak in private housing supply [1] - The residential vacancy rate remains low at approximately 4%, driven by the influx of talent and students from mainland China, indicating strong housing demand alongside steady rental growth [1] - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong has decreased from 8% post-pandemic to 3.8%, with moderate growth in household income, suggesting a favorable macroeconomic environment for the housing market [1] Group 2: Public Housing and Market Dynamics - An increase in public housing supply is expected to reduce the government's need for intervention in the private market, contributing to social stability, as the target demographic for public housing does not overlap with private residential buyers [1] - The report highlights Hong Kong's differentiated advantages under the "One Country, Two Systems" framework, which includes property rights protection and low tax regimes, leading to sustained demand from mainland investors, particularly for properties near universities [2] - The retail sector faces structural challenges due to e-commerce, while the restaurant industry remains resilient; however, overall leasing demand is weak, contrasting with signs of recovery in the office market supported by improvements in the capital market [2]