Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-11-24 04:09Core Viewpoint - The LNG market is experiencing an unusual price increase during the traditionally low consumption season, with prices reaching historical highs since 2015, driven by supply constraints and rising costs [1][2][4]. Price Trends - As of mid-July, LNG prices rose to 4321.7 yuan/ton, an 11.1% increase from early July [1]. - The national LNG ex-factory price index surged from 3840 yuan/ton on July 5 to 4556 yuan/ton by July 20, with peak prices reaching 5200 yuan/ton in July, compared to 2700-3500 yuan/ton in the same month last year [2][4]. - By July 23, LNG prices began to decline, dropping to 4434 yuan/ton, with further reductions observed at specific receiving stations [5]. Supply Constraints - PetroChina's gas supply restrictions, initially set at 30% and later increased to 50% for certain factories, have significantly impacted LNG prices [2][4]. - The rise in raw gas prices from 1.68 yuan/cubic meter to 1.88 yuan/cubic meter has added nearly 300 yuan/ton to LNG production costs [4]. Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the current price increase may not be sustainable due to limited downstream demand and increasing pressure on traders to sell [5][6]. - The international LNG spot prices have also risen, with an average of 9.96 USD/million BTU in July, marking an 80% increase from the previous year [4]. Future Outlook - Short-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in LNG prices as supply conditions improve and demand remains weak [5][6]. - Long-term projections suggest that winter prices could rise significantly, potentially reaching 6000-7000 yuan/ton, depending on the stability of supply from Central Asia [7].