华夏新供给经济学研究院首席经济学家贾康：中国有效投资空间巨大 下半年经济不确定性主要来自外部

Core Viewpoint - The analysis emphasizes the dual nature of uncertainty and certainty in China's macroeconomic environment, highlighting the importance of internal measures to navigate external shocks [2][3]. Economic Performance - In the first half of 2018, China's GDP reached 41.8961 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%. The growth rates were 6.8% in Q1 and 6.7% in Q2 [2]. Future Economic Development Focus - Key areas for future macroeconomic development include expanding domestic demand, smart investment, and effective investment, which hold significant potential [3][4]. - The transition to a new normal in China's economy is seen as fundamentally established, with a focus on structural optimization and leveraging the potential of the "largest market" [3]. Policy Recommendations - Monetary policy has shifted to a "moderately loose" stance, which is deemed necessary to support economic growth [3]. - Fiscal policy should actively support investment and consumption while emphasizing structural optimization [4]. - Effective investment and innovation are crucial for sustaining consumption, which should be supported by a strong economic foundation [4].