伊朗11月底开始陆续限气 甲醇期货强势拉升

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching 2079.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.18% increase as of November 24 [1] Market Overview - As of November 21, the average price of methanol in Inner Mongolia was 1960 CNY/ton, down 1.58% month-on-month [2] - Domestic methanol overall operating load was 76.25% as of November 20, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points from the previous month, but an increase of 1.54 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Methanol inventory at East China ports was 787,600 tons as of November 20, a decrease of 15,700 tons from 803,300 tons on November 13 [2] Institutional Insights - Yide Futures noted a slight decrease in domestic operating rates, with companies like Jiutai and Kaiyue delaying restarts. A recovery in operating rates is expected, while overseas operations remain unchanged. Iranian facilities are fully operational but are expected to begin gas restrictions at the end of November, leading to a decrease in port arrivals. Downstream operating rates are rising, but overall inventory levels remain high due to stable domestic operations and high import volumes [3] - Guangda Futures highlighted that domestic maintenance operations are stable, restoring supply to high levels. However, Iranian facilities may face shutdowns due to gas restrictions, which could significantly reduce arrivals in January. The methanol market is expected to experience bottom-side fluctuations, with attention needed on gas restriction rhythms and inventory depletion sustainability [3]