基本面短期内无明显利好支撑 纯苯或走入震荡区间

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the articles is the recent decline in pure benzene futures prices, with expectations of continued volatility in the market due to supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 24, pure benzene futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 5421.0 yuan, with the main contract closing at 5455.0 yuan, down 1.68% [1]. - The latest commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports is 147,000 tons, which is an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous period, representing a 30.09% rise; compared to the same period last year, it is up by 29,300 tons, or 24.89% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: The operating rate of petroleum benzene is currently at 76.67%, down 1.31% from the previous week, with new maintenance schedules for some facilities [3]. - Demand side: The downstream weighted operating rate is at 73.52%, showing a slight increase, but overall terminal demand remains weak, limiting support for pure benzene prices [3]. - The overall demand for pure benzene is declining due to reduced needs from downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid, while phenol demand remains stable [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The market sentiment is influenced by external factors, with the benzene price spread remaining stable at $104/ton compared to the previous week [3]. - The expectation of a gradual improvement in supply and demand for pure benzene is noted, particularly as the U.S. market's supply gap will rely on imports, potentially affecting China's import share [3]. - However, the recent decline in gasoline crack spreads poses a risk to cost support, leading to expectations that pure benzene prices may enter a range-bound trading phase [3].