Core Insights - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the increase in electric vehicle battery capacity and the continuous expansion of new scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [1] - The European market is anticipated to accelerate recovery in demand with the initiation of a new car cycle [1] - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship in the industry chain is expected to improve further, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity, resulting in price increases in energy storage cells and related components [2] Group 1: Market Trends - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver [1] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is benefiting from increased electric vehicle battery capacity and the expansion of new applications, while the European market is set to recover due to the new car cycle [1] - The introduction of capacity pricing policies in various provinces in China is expected to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, with demand anticipated to exceed expectations by 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve significantly, with leading manufacturers nearly at full production capacity, leading to price increases in energy storage cells and other components [2] - Capital expenditures in the battery sector are expected to remain high, but overall growth will align with demand, while new capacity in the materials sector is limited, potentially leading to further increases in utilization rates [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industrialization of all-solid-state sulfide batteries is entering the pilot testing phase in 2025, with semi-solid oxide/polymer composite routes accelerating [3] - By 2026, small-scale production and trial installations of all-solid-state sulfide batteries are expected, with advancements in process routes and material systems [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1. Anticipating energy storage demand to exceed expectations, driving a reversal trend in the sector, with key recommendations in lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [4] 2. Emphasizing new technologies as high-growth investment directions, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries and their supply chains [4] 3. Looking at the recovery of charging station construction under policy support, with new scenarios potentially leading to value reassessment [4]
中金：新能源车中游基本面拐点确立 迎接新一轮锂电上行及技术创新周期
智通财经网·2025-11-24 06:21