Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-24 07:08Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector shows mixed performance, with urea futures experiencing a downward trend due to high supply pressures and limited short-term demand drivers [1] Supply - As of November, urea daily production is expected to remain high due to policy support and profit recovery, which exerts significant pressure on prices [1] - Total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is reported at 1.4372 million tons, lower than last week's expectations, while port sample inventory stands at 100,000 tons, aligning with previous forecasts [1] Demand - Recent concentrated procurement for reserve demand in Northeast China may slow down as previous purchases have adequately supplemented stocks [1] - There is a slight increase in compound fertilizer production, with companies beginning to schedule winter storage fertilizers, leading to a narrow rise in capacity utilization [1] - Export demand is gradually increasing with the implementation of a new batch of quotas [1] Market Outlook - Urea prices are expected to stabilize with limited downward space due to export policies and cost support, while there are no significant upward drivers in the short term [1] - Future demand will focus on export and winter storage needs, while supply considerations will include winter production halts and cost support [1] - The strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips due to low prices [1]