智通财经网·2025-11-24 08:08Core Viewpoint - In October, China's steel exports decreased to 9.782 million tons, down 683,000 tons from September, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 6.5% and a year-on-year decline of 12.5% [1][2] Group 1: Export Data - Cumulative steel exports from January to October reached 97.737 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [2] - The global manufacturing PMI is stabilizing, and China's steel export order index has returned to the expansion zone, enhancing the competitiveness of steel export prices [2] - The export price of hot-rolled coils (FOB) is $445 per ton, which is $45 to $95 lower than major exporting countries like India, Turkey, and Japan [2] Group 2: Regional and Country-Specific Trends - Exports to West Asia, Africa, and South America increased by 6.7%, 30.4%, and 17% respectively from January to October, while exports to Southeast Asia, East Asia, and North America decreased by 0.8%, 9.7%, and 20.7% [2] - Exports to Vietnam and South Korea, the top two destinations, fell by 25.8% and 11.8% respectively due to anti-dumping tax measures, while exports to Thailand, the Philippines, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia increased by 12.6%, 11.2%, 6.8%, and 19.1% respectively [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for steel consumption in countries along the "Belt and Road" is expected to benefit China's steel exports next year, helping to alleviate domestic demand pressures [3] - Indirect steel exports, which include machinery and electrical products, are projected to grow, with the total import and export value of machinery and electrical products increasing by 6.8% year-on-year to $271.78 billion [3] - The export of integrated circuits rose by 23.7% year-on-year to $161.69 billion, while automotive exports increased by 13.4% to $111.44 billion [3] Group 4: Supply and Inventory Trends - The supply of five major steel products reached 8.4991 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 15,530 tons, reflecting a 1.9% growth [4] - Total inventory of five major steel products decreased to 14.331 million tons, down 442,500 tons week-on-week, a decline of 3% [4] - Weekly consumption of five major products was 8.9416 million tons, with construction materials and sheet consumption increasing by 5.3% and 3.2% respectively [4] Group 5: Profitability and Investment Recommendations - The profitability of 247 steel mills is at 37.66%, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.3 percentage points, marking 15 consecutive weeks of decline [4] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-dividend and high-return companies in the construction sector, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [5] - The special steel sector is expected to grow due to policy support and the demand for high-end special steel materials, with companies like Nanjing Steel and CITIC Special Steel recommended for future attention [6]