35.7%！2月制造业PMI创新低，3月能否反弹？出口、投资和消费谁先回暖？

Core Viewpoint - The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, leading to a sharp decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February 2020, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 35.7%, a decrease of 14.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][3]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for February 2020 is reported at 35.7%, with large, medium, and small enterprises showing PMIs of 36.3%, 35.5%, and 34.1% respectively, all experiencing declines of over 14 percentage points [1][3]. - All five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI are below the critical threshold, indicating widespread contraction [3]. - The production index fell to 27.8%, a drop of 23.5 percentage points, while the new orders index decreased to 29.3%, down 22.1 percentage points [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 29.6%, a decline of 24.5 percentage points, indicating a significant overall contraction in the non-manufacturing economy [3]. - Only the monetary financial services and capital market services maintained an expansionary index, while the construction sector's index fell to 26.6%, down 33.1 percentage points [3]. Export and Import Orders - The new export orders index plummeted to 28.7%, a decrease of 20 percentage points, attributed to the pandemic's impact on domestic production and overseas demand [5][6]. - The import index also fell to 31.9%, down 17.1 percentage points, reflecting a temporary decline in demand for raw materials due to halted production [6]. Economic Recovery Outlook - Analysts predict a potential rebound in the PMI for March, with expectations that the recovery rate for large and medium enterprises will rise to 90.8% by the end of March [7]. - Various government policies aimed at tax reductions, financial support, and employment stabilization are expected to alleviate the difficulties faced by businesses and boost confidence [7]. - The recovery in external demand is anticipated to be gradual, with a focus on nurturing internal market dynamics to restore foreign investor confidence [7][8]. Industry-Specific Insights - The recovery of industries such as real estate and infrastructure is crucial, as their slow resumption has led to inventory accumulation in upstream sectors [8]. - The service sector, particularly leisure services like dining and tourism, continues to face challenges, with low operational rates and ongoing demand suppression expected to persist [9].