第一上海：维持银河娱乐(00027)“买入”评级 Q3业绩符合预期

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a target price of HKD 50.06, citing strong product and service offerings, a robust balance sheet, and upcoming projects that will enhance market share [1] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance Overview - Galaxy's net revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the 2019 level [1] - VIP gaming table turnover rose by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 39.7% of the 2019 level [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 27.5% [1] Group 2: Macau Galaxy and StarWorld Hotel Performance - Macau Galaxy's net revenue grew by 20% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 10.1 billion, recovering to 108% of the 2019 level [2] - StarWorld Hotel's net revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year but increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 1.3 billion, recovering to 50% of the 2019 level [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Macau Galaxy was HKD 3.07 billion (up 20% year-on-year) and for StarWorld was HKD 370 million (down 7% year-on-year) [2] Group 3: Updates on Macau Galaxy Phase 3 and 4 - The Capella Hotel and Resort, the tenth brand of Macau Galaxy, has most facilities open with positive customer feedback; remaining facilities are expected to open early next year [3] - Construction for Phase 4 is ongoing, expected to be completed by 2027, covering approximately 600,000 square meters with multiple high-end hotel brands and various entertainment facilities [3] - Capital expenditure for the year is expected to be significantly lower than the previously budgeted HKD 7 billion, with HKD 630 million spent in the period and a budget of approximately HKD 7 billion for next year [3] Group 4: Recent Performance - Retail performance showed quarter-on-quarter improvement, with approximately 260 events held from January to September 2025, increasing foot traffic by 41% year-on-year [4] - The market share remained stable at around 19.6%, with short-term expectations to maintain above 20% [4] - Daily operating expenses increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 370 million [4]