新能源汽车周度报告：乘联会预期11月乘用车零售下降8.7% 新能源渗透率60%

Group 1: Domestic Market Insights - In the first half of November (1-16), retail sales of passenger cars in China decreased by 14% year-on-year, while retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) increased by 2% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 62.5% [1] - For the year-to-date, cumulative retail sales of passenger cars and NEVs increased by 7% and 21% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) forecasts that November's narrow passenger car retail sales will reach 2.25 million units, reflecting a decline of 8.7%, while NEV sales are expected to be 1.35 million units, with a growth rate of 6.5% and a penetration rate of approximately 60% [1] Group 2: Overseas Market Trends - In October, U.S. NEV sales totaled 94,000 units, marking a year-on-year decline of 32.4% and a month-on-month decline of 50.9%, with cumulative sales from January to October reaching 1.425 million units, up 9.1% year-on-year [1] - The penetration rate of NEVs in the U.S. dropped sharply from 15% in September to 7% in October, influenced by the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit on September 30 [1] - The market is expected to continue experiencing a decline in cumulative growth rates, approaching 0%, due to strong performance in the fourth quarter of the previous year impacting this year's growth [1] Group 3: Malaysia's Electric Vehicle Initiatives - Malaysia plans to introduce a mandatory list and localization incentives to promote the electric vehicle industry, including revisions to the existing import tax exemption policy for complete built-up (CBU) electric vehicles, which is expected to increase prices by 30-100% [2] - Tax incentives for locally assembled (CKD) electric vehicles will be extended until 2027, encouraging local assembly and parts production [2] - Most local brands, including Proton and Perodua, have achieved localized production, while foreign manufacturers like BYD and Xpeng plan to start local assembly in the second half of 2026 [2] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 30% in 2023 and 50% for the first time in 2024, entering a highly competitive phase with new products continuously being launched [4] - The overseas market faces risks from severe trade protectionism in Europe and the U.S., prompting a focus on new growth points in Belt and Road countries and the Middle East [4] - The competitive landscape shows that domestic brands are expanding their market share, with a focus on companies that have strong product capabilities, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains [4]