3 Key US Economic Reports Could Move Bitcoin Before Thanksgiving

Core Insights - Bitcoin is facing a critical week as three delayed US economic reports are set to be released, which could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and influence crypto markets [1] - The convergence of these economic indicators is significant due to the current lack of up-to-date consumer spending and inflation metrics [4] Economic Reports Overview - The US economic reports include September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for November 25, followed by initial jobless claims data on November 26 [3] - The previous retail sales report indicated a strong 0.6% monthly gain, while the PPI fell by 0.1% in August, with a year-over-year core PPI of 2.8% [4] Retail Sales Expectations - The consensus for September retail sales predicts a 0.3% month-over-month increase, with any miss below this mark potentially signaling economic cooling and fostering dovish sentiment among Federal Reserve policymakers [5] - Weaker consumer spending is often associated with rising speculation about rate cuts, which could weaken the dollar and support crypto prices [5] PPI Data Significance - The PPI release is crucial as it is the last significant inflation data before the October Personal Consumption Expenditures report [6] - Markets currently price in a 67.3% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, which may shift based on new data [7] Inflation Impact on Market Expectations - A higher-than-expected PPI, especially in core measures excluding food and energy, could reduce December cut odds below 60%, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on crypto [8] - September's consensus calls for a 0.3% monthly PPI increase, with any number significantly above this challenging the view of moderating price pressures [9]