铜价大幅抬升家电生产成本，行业再提”以铝代铜”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the rising copper prices will impact air conditioning prices, but the effect may not be felt until 2026 due to pre-purchasing by manufacturers [1][3] - Copper prices are currently at historical highs, with LME copper futures reaching $10,800 per ton on November 24, and a forecast of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton for the next two years due to supply constraints and increased demand from AI [3][4] - The increase in copper prices has led to a 13.5% year-on-year decline in China's air conditioning production in September, with production dropping to 10.567 million units [3][4] Group 2 - The air conditioning industry is facing intense competition, making it difficult to raise prices despite increased production costs from rising copper prices, which have risen approximately 8% since April [4][5] - The industry is undergoing a new round of restructuring, with larger companies benefiting from government subsidies while smaller firms face increased pressure and may shift towards exports [4][5] - The high copper prices are expected to accelerate the adoption of alternative materials like aluminum and steel in air conditioning components, as the technology for these substitutes has matured over the past decade [4][5]