泓德基金：受海外股市影响，近期国内股市波动加大

Market Overview - The domestic equity market experienced a pullback due to multiple factors, with the technology sector seeing a larger decline compared to others. On November 21, significant single-day drops were noted, leading to investor divergence regarding future market trends. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and SSE 50 fell by 3.9%, 3.8%, and 2.7% respectively, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech dropped by 5.1% and 7.2% respectively [1] External Factors - Following the surge of U.S. tech giants' market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion at the end of October, skepticism regarding an AI bubble has increased. Concerns focus on the substantial capital expenditures expected in AI infrastructure, which may not yield clear returns and face risks of rapid technological obsolescence. The inter-investment and high-value contracts among AI giants create a fragile business model that could collapse if any part fails. Despite positive third-quarter reports from U.S. tech giants, their stock prices showed volatility, raising investor concerns [2] Internal Factors - Recent macroeconomic data indicates that while the overall economy remains stable, there is a structural divergence with external demand outpacing internal demand. The real estate sector, which significantly impacts household assets, has been in a downward adjustment since Q4 2021, further affecting consumer confidence. Investors are questioning the sustainability of a market rally driven solely by liquidity without fundamental support. The financing balance, a key source of market growth, has fluctuated from CNY 1.8 trillion on June 20 to CNY 2.5 trillion by October 29, but has recently shown signs of decline [3] Investment Themes - The analysis suggests that AI and overseas expansion themes are central to the current market rally. AI encompasses both hardware and software dimensions, while overseas expansion includes both manufacturing and service sectors, reflecting the current macroeconomic trend of stronger external demand compared to internal demand [3] Bond Market - In the bond market, yields on government bonds showed mixed results while credit bond yields varied. Despite the central bank's net liquidity injection, the overall funding environment remains tight. Factors such as overseas influences suppressing interest rate cut expectations and domestic real estate stimulus rumors have pressured the bond market. The Shanghai Composite Index's 3.9% drop, particularly the largest since April 7, coincided with a decline in risk appetite, yet bond yields slightly increased due to limited positive factors and unclear monetary policy direction [4]