Singapore inflation climbs to a near 1-year high as October price growth sharply exceeds estimates

Inflation Overview - Singapore's inflation rate rose for the second consecutive month, reaching a year-on-year increase of 1.2% in October, the highest since August 2024, surpassing the 0.9% average estimated by economists [1][2] - Core inflation also increased to 1.2%, up from 0.4%, exceeding the 0.7% expected in the Reuters poll [2][3] Economic Growth - Singapore's economy grew by 4.2% in the third quarter year-on-year, outperforming estimates and extending the previous quarter's growth of 4.7% [5] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry upgraded the economic growth forecast for Singapore to 4% from a previous range of 1.5%-2.5% [4] Trade and Exports - Singapore's trade-to-GDP ratio is over 320% in 2024, indicating a heavy reliance on trade [6] - In the third quarter, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 3.3% year-on-year, primarily due to weaker pharmaceutical and petrochemical exports [6] - However, in October, NODX surged by 22.2% year-on-year, driven by exports of non-monetary gold and electronic products [7] Future Inflation Projections - The Monetary Authority of Singapore forecasts inflation to be around 0.5% to 1% for 2025 [7] - Core and headline inflation are expected to exceed 1% in 2026, influenced by factors such as increased public transport fares and a higher carbon tax [8]