沈建光：“十五五”中小银行如何改革化险

Core Viewpoint - The reform and risk mitigation of small and medium-sized banks must go beyond passive measures like mergers and capital supplementation, requiring a fundamental shift in development models and the rebuilding of core competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Current Challenges - The number of banking financial institutions in China has decreased to 4,295 by the end of 2024, a net reduction of 195 from the end of 2023, with over 90% being small and medium-sized institutions [1]. - Many small banks are facing severe survival crises, as evidenced by the complete acquisition of Jinzhou Bank by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [1]. - The capital adequacy ratio of several small banks is approaching or even below the regulatory minimum of 8%, indicating a critical risk to their operational sustainability [3]. Group 2: Economic and Industry Context - The traditional economic growth model in China, reliant on investment and real estate, is undergoing significant changes, leading to a slowdown in bank asset growth and an increase in non-performing loan rates [3][6]. - The deep integration of small banks with local economies and industries has heightened their risk exposure, particularly in the real estate sector, where some banks have reported non-performing loan rates exceeding 40% [6][9]. - The competitive landscape of the banking industry is shifting, with large state-owned banks gaining market share at the expense of smaller banks, as evidenced by a 4 percentage point increase in the asset share of large banks from 2019 to 2025 [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Profitability - The net interest margin of commercial banks has shrunk significantly, from over 3% a decade ago to a historical low of 1.42% by mid-2025, while the non-performing loan rate remains high at 1.49% [11][12]. - Small banks, particularly rural and urban commercial banks, are experiencing a more pronounced impact from narrowing net interest margins due to their inadequate pricing capabilities and higher non-performing loan rates [12][14]. - The reliance on traditional interest income is becoming increasingly untenable for small banks, necessitating a shift towards non-interest income sources, which they struggle to develop due to resource constraints [14][15]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Small and medium-sized banks need to embrace digital transformation and collaborate with third-party institutions to enhance their technological capabilities and expand their business scope [2][15]. - There is a need to shift from a reliance on large clients and economic growth to a more nuanced approach that leverages local data for refined service offerings [16]. - Policy support should be more equitable, extending to small banks to ensure they can compete effectively against larger institutions [17]. Group 5: Conclusion - The current environment presents a critical window for reforming small and medium-sized banks, emphasizing the necessity for a comprehensive transformation in their operational models to survive and thrive in a changing landscape [17][18].