【专家看市】动力煤价格短期偏稳，后期核心关注冷冬预期能否兑现

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing slight fluctuations in prices due to mixed demand factors, with non-electricity demand providing some support while electricity consumption remains weak [1][4]. Group 1: Coal Prices and Supply - The price of pithead thermal coal in major production areas has shown slight fluctuations, with non-electric demand supporting prices while electricity coal demand is weak [1]. - In the Bohai Rim region, the average daily coal inflow to nine ports is 2.055 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons from last week, while daily shipments decreased by 122,000 tons to approximately 1.751 million tons [1]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased by 1.9 million tons to approximately 26.8 million tons [1]. Group 2: Power Plant Consumption - The average daily coal consumption of power plants across 25 provinces is approximately 5.234 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [2]. - The total coal inventory at power plants is 134.9 million tons, an increase of about 1.15 million tons from last week, but down approximately 1 million tons year-on-year [2]. - Coastal power plants have an average daily coal consumption of 1.455 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, with a static average inventory of 18.5 days [2]. Group 3: Shipping and Imports - The number of vessels anchored at nine ports remains around 105, with slight fluctuations in coastal coal shipping rates [3]. - The export prices of Indonesian coal have continued to rise slightly, with the landed cost for 4,600 kcal coal around 600, and for 5,000 kcal coal around 655 [3]. - The import volume of coal is expected to reach a new high for the year in November, with ongoing attention to the shipping and arrival of imported coal [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The coastal region continues to see a significant price advantage for imported coal, with high import volumes and good overall supply of domestic coal [4]. - The overall demand for electricity coal remains weak, particularly in East China and the southeastern coastal regions, with seasonal inventory increases expected [4]. - The market sentiment among traders remains stable, with no immediate plans to sell off stock, suggesting that coal prices are unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [4][5].