美联储主席候选人沃勒力挺12月降息 明年1月起或转向“逐次会议”判断模式

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut in the upcoming December policy meeting, but suggests that decisions may shift to a "meeting-by-meeting" approach starting in January as more key economic data becomes available [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Waller's primary concern is the labor market, which is crucial to the Fed's dual mandate, leading him to support a rate cut in the next meeting [1]. - Current market expectations indicate a 70% probability of a rate cut during the December 9-10 meeting, although there is significant internal disagreement among decision-makers regarding the necessity of further cuts after September and October [1]. - Waller notes that recent data shows a weak labor market, but warns that key economic reports delayed due to government shutdown will be released after the December meeting, complicating the January rate decision [1]. Group 2: Upcoming Data Releases - Key economic reports, including October and November employment data, are set to be released on December 16, and November inflation data on December 18, which could impact future rate decisions [1]. - Waller expresses concern that if data shows a sudden rebound in inflation or employment, or if the economy accelerates again, it could raise alarms [1]. - He does not anticipate significant improvement in the labor market over the next six to eight weeks [1]. Group 3: Potential Leadership Changes - Waller is being considered by the Trump administration as a potential successor to Jerome Powell as Fed Chair next year, having had a positive meeting with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding the interview process [1][2].