Walmart Raises FY26 Sales View: Can Q4 Execution Match the Hype?

Core Insights - Walmart Inc. raised its fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to a range of 4.8-5.1% at constant currency, up from the previous range of 3.75-4.75% following steady top-line momentum in Q3 [1][10] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Walmart's total revenues increased by 5.8% (6% at constant currency), driven by strong e-commerce performance, positive transaction counts, and market share gains across major categories [2][10] - Walmart anticipates fourth-quarter sales growth in the range of 3.75-4.75% at constant currency, which is necessary to meet the raised fiscal 2026 sales guidance [3][10] Market Dynamics - The timing shift of Flipkart's Big Billion Days event into Q3 is expected to impact year-over-year comparisons, while price investments in Mexico may also influence quarterly performance [4][10] - Despite these challenges, Walmart enters the quarter with healthy inventory levels and ongoing success in store-fulfilled delivery and advertising [5] Competitor Insights - Target reported Q3 fiscal 2025 net sales of $25.3 billion, a decline of 1.5% year-over-year, and expects a low single-digit decline in Q4 sales [6] - Kroger's Q2 fiscal 2025 sales were nearly flat at $33.94 billion, with identical sales without fuel growing by 3.4%, and it expects growth of 2.7-3.4% for the upcoming quarter [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Walmart's shares have increased by 16.6% year-to-date, slightly outperforming the industry growth of 16.3% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 36.74, which is higher than the industry average of 33.52 [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Walmart's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings indicates year-over-year growth of 4.4% and 11.5%, respectively [15]