Can ChatGPT-Powered Shopping Drive Target's Next Digital Push?

Core Insights - Target Corporation (TGT) is significantly enhancing its use of generative AI to improve digital engagement and drive growth, with digital comparable sales increasing by 2.4% and same-day services rising over 35% in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: AI Innovations - The introduction of Target's Gen-AI Gift Finder aims to provide personalized product suggestions by interpreting natural-language queries, enhancing customer engagement during the shopping experience [2]. - Target is integrating with ChatGPT to facilitate conversational commerce, allowing customers to receive personalized recommendations and complete purchases seamlessly, with a fulfillment network that covers 99% of U.S. households for two-day shipping [3]. Group 2: AI Infrastructure and Performance - Target's AI infrastructure includes tools like Trend Brain and synthetic audiences, which help identify trends and improve in-stock rates by over 150 basis points for the top 5,000 items, enhancing the overall digital shopping experience [4]. - Early indicators show promising growth in Target Plus marketplace GMV and Roundel ad sales, suggesting that AI-driven shopping experiences are effective, with nearly 50% growth in GMV and mid-teens growth in ad sales [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - TGT stock has decreased by 35.2% year-to-date, contrasting with the industry's growth of 4.1% [8]. - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for TGT is 11.43, significantly lower than the industry average of 29.77, indicating a lower valuation [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 17.6% decline in TGT's fiscal 2025 earnings, followed by a projected growth of 6.2% in fiscal 2026, with recent earnings estimates being revised downward [12].