Oil Rises as Prospects for Ukraine Peace Deal Dominate Market

Core Insights - Oil prices are fluctuating as traders consider the potential for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal, which could reduce political risks in a well-supplied market [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude is trading around $58, showing little change after experiencing its largest weekly loss since early October [1] - The crude market has faced a significant decline this year, with futures on track for a fourth consecutive monthly loss in November, marking the longest losing streak since 2023 [4] Group 1 - The ongoing peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are at a "critical moment," with key issues regarding territory and sovereignty remaining contentious [5] - The International Energy Agency has projected a record surplus in global oil supply for 2026, driven by increased output from OPEC+ [4] - Traders are closely monitoring the developments of the peace talks and the potential lifting of sanctions on Russia, which could lead to an increase in oil supply [4] Group 2 - Refined products such as diesel and gasoline, which have seen price increases recently, experienced declines on Monday, with some commodity trading advisers selling positions [3] - Analysts predict a volatile oil market leading up to Thanksgiving, with expectations of a possible peace agreement or ceasefire influencing price trends [5] - President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the peace talks, indicating a potential shift in sentiment regarding the situation [2]