Allied Gold vs. B2Gold: Which Gold Mining Stock has Greater Upside?

Core Viewpoint - Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) and B2Gold Corp. (BTG) are key players in the gold mining industry, both focusing on growth through exploration, mine expansions, and strategic partnerships [1][2]. Group 1: Allied Gold Corporation (AAUC) - Allied Gold is experiencing strong operational momentum in Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ethiopia, producing 262,077 ounces of gold in the first nine months of 2025, slightly up from 258,459 ounces in the same period last year [3]. - The company anticipates production to exceed 375,000 ounces for the year, with significant contributions expected in the fourth quarter from its Bonikro and Sadiola mines [3]. - Operational improvements include drilling high-grade zones, enhancing mine models, and introducing new equipment to increase efficiency and accuracy [4]. - The surge in gold prices, driven by economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, has created a favorable environment for gold investments [5]. Group 2: B2Gold Corp. (BTG) - B2Gold is focused on maximizing profitable mine production and advancing its development projects, with the Goose mine achieving its first gold pour on June 30, 2025, and reaching commercial production in October 2025 [6]. - The company expects the Goose Project to contribute 50,000-80,000 ounces of gold to its total production in 2025, while also planning to recover lost production at Fekola [7]. - B2Gold's Fekola mine produced 146,883 ounces of gold in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding expectations, and the company is set to benefit from higher-grade ore from Fekola underground [7]. - However, B2Gold is facing cost inflation pressures across its operations, with projected cash operating costs for 2025 ranging from $740 to $800 per ounce for key mines, and significantly higher costs for the Goose Mine at $2,300 to $2,360 per ounce [9][17]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAUC's 2025 sales indicates an 80.4% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share (EPS) growth of 857.1%, although EPS estimates have been trending downward [10]. - For BTG, the 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply year-over-year growth of 66.3% and 262.5%, respectively, but EPS estimates have also declined [11]. - In the past year, Allied Gold's shares have increased by 7.7%, while B2Gold's stock has risen by 33.6% [12]. - Allied Gold is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 3.81X, below its median of 4.75X, while B2Gold's forward earnings multiple is at 4.97X, lower than its median of 7.21X [14]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Allied Gold is positioned for strong performance due to its operational strength, rising production, and favorable macroeconomic conditions, making it an attractive investment option [16]. - In contrast, while B2Gold benefits from the Goose ramp-up and Fekola's recovery, cost inflation is impacting its profitability, leading to a less favorable investment outlook compared to AAUC [17].