港股将迎解禁高峰 增量资金正在加码

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a phase of rebound with the Hang Seng Index closing up by 1.97% on November 24, following a decline of over 5% in the previous week due to concerns over global liquidity and debates surrounding the AI bubble [1] - From early November to the end of December, the Hong Kong stock market will face significant unlocking pressure, with an estimated unlocking scale of approximately 32.1% of the total for the year, amounting to about 197.13 billion HKD [1][2] - The unlocking of shares is primarily due to the expiration of lock-up periods for cornerstone investors of newly listed "A+H" stocks and certain new economy companies, leading to a phase of unlocking peak in the market [2] Group 2 - Notable individual stock unlockings include CATL unlocking 77.45 million shares valued at 37.4 billion HKD, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical unlocking 93.77 million shares on November 24 [2] - The large-scale unlocking of shares is expected to exert direct pressure on stock prices and market sentiment, potentially leading to increased volatility as early investors may have selling expectations [2][3] Group 3 - Despite the emotional and financial disturbances in the Hong Kong market, incremental capital is quietly increasing, with southbound funds totaling 110.6 billion HKD inflow since November [4] - The five sectors with the largest net inflows from southbound funds include banking, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, electronics, and real estate, indicating strong interest in these areas [4] Group 4 - Stock buybacks have remained high, with a total of 152.8 billion HKD in buybacks this year, as companies like Tencent and Xiaomi actively repurchase shares to stabilize the market [4][5] - The buyback activity is seen as a direct effort from companies to counter market selling pressure and enhance per-share earnings, thus increasing intrinsic stock value [5] Group 5 - Analysts predict that the unlocking tide will peak in December and then decrease to below 50 billion HKD in January, with expectations of significant inflows from southbound funds in early next year [5] - The market is anticipated to benefit from a new upward cycle led by AI, with scarce assets in the Hong Kong market likely to stand out [5]