十年税优红利终结 陆上风电迎新一轮效能变革

Core Insights - The termination of the 50% VAT refund policy for onshore wind power by November 1, 2025, marks a significant shift in China's wind power industry from "policy support" to "market competition" [1][2] - The offshore wind power tax support policy will continue until the end of 2027, reflecting the different development stages and technological requirements of onshore and offshore wind power [1][2] Industry Transition - The end of the decade-long policy benefits indicates the maturity of the industry and the necessity for policy optimization, as onshore wind power has become a crucial part of the energy supply, contributing approximately 11% to the total electricity consumption [2] - The shift from broad-based support to more precise incentives aims to prevent excessive reliance on policy assistance and encourages a focus on key technological breakthroughs [2] Cost and Efficiency Challenges - The cancellation of tax incentives is expected to increase tax costs for onshore wind enterprises, potentially raising the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by 1% to 5% [4] - The cost pressure is transmitted throughout the industry chain, affecting manufacturers, service providers, and project developers, with a notable impact on smaller manufacturers [4][5] Technological Advancements - Leading companies are already leveraging technological innovations to enhance efficiency, such as the development of new technologies that reduce costs significantly [5] - The focus on improving LCOE will drive companies to optimize project planning, construction, and maintenance processes [5] Global Expansion - As domestic market profits decline, international expansion has become essential for sustained growth, with significant potential in overseas markets [7] - Chinese wind power companies, having honed their skills in the domestic market, are well-positioned to leverage their cost and technological advantages for global competitiveness [7][8] Market Valuation Shift - The transition from being mere equipment suppliers to comprehensive global renewable energy solution providers may reshape market valuation logic for wind power companies [8] - This shift towards diversified services and stable income streams enhances resilience against industry fluctuations and demonstrates stronger overall capabilities [8]