黑天鹅突现！“欧洲股王”暴跌

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted over 12% in pre-market trading following the announcement that its trials for the Alzheimer's drug semaglutide did not show significant efficacy compared to a placebo, leading to the termination of further studies [1][4]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - The EVOKE and EVOKE+ trials failed to demonstrate that semaglutide could slow the progression of early Alzheimer's disease compared to a placebo, despite some improvements in biological markers associated with the disease [1][4]. - Novo Nordisk will terminate the planned one-year extension studies for these trials based on the efficacy results [1]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk's stock price fell by 21.83%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $60 billion, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 53% [8]. - In contrast, Biogen, which is also developing Alzheimer's drugs, saw its stock rise over 6% in pre-market trading on the same day [3]. Group 3: Company Performance and Challenges - Despite achieving $16.632 billion in sales for semaglutide, Novo Nordisk has faced challenges, including a reduction in sales growth forecasts from 16%-24% to 8%-14% and a decrease in operating profit growth expectations from 19%-27% to 10%-16% [8]. - The company is also facing imminent patent expirations for semaglutide, with its core patent in China set to expire in 2026, raising concerns about market share due to the entry of generic competitors [8][11]. Group 4: Management Changes - Novo Nordisk is undergoing significant management upheaval, with the resignation of the chairman and six board members following the dismissal of the CEO earlier in the year [12]. - The new CEO has initiated substantial layoffs and a strategic shift away from certain research areas, which has led to internal conflicts within the board [12].