广发策略 | 降息疑云之下，美股如何演绎？——港股&海外周聚焦（11月第4期）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US stock market is expected to recover in the short term due to the alleviation of three major negative factors: concerns over the AI bubble, tightening liquidity, and macroeconomic uncertainty [2][3][4] - The US non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected increase of 52,000, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021 [6][10] - The market interpreted the non-farm report as neutral to weak, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising from 39% to 71% following the report [12][14] Group 2 - The current economic situation in the US is characterized by a "K-shaped" economy and a "Goldilocks" economy, both of which are expected to support strong stock market performance [4][31] - Despite concerns over the AI bubble, the overall health of corporate balance sheets remains acceptable, with only Oracle showing high leverage characteristics [26][34] - The liquidity situation has improved significantly after the government reopened, alleviating previous concerns about dollar liquidity [28][34] Group 3 - The employment market is currently in a delicate balance, with both job growth and layoffs occurring simultaneously, indicating a lower risk of significant downturns in the short term [18][20] - Historical analysis suggests that the Fed may pause rate cuts in the short term, as the current economic indicators do not show signs of a significant recession [22][24] - The potential for sector rotation is highlighted, particularly in the healthcare sector, which has seen recent inflows after underperforming since late 2022 [34]