Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-24 23:56Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that domestic green methanol production capacity is characterized by "small-scale validation, accelerated implementation, and ample reserves" with 190,000 tons/year already in production and 3.11 million tons/year under construction as of September 2025, and a long-term planned capacity expected to reach 18.23 million tons/year [1] Group 1: Production Capacity - As of September 2025, 190,000 tons/year of green methanol production capacity has been put into operation [1] - There are currently 3.11 million tons/year of green methanol production capacity under construction [1] - Long-term planned capacity for green methanol production is projected to reach 18.23 million tons/year [1] Group 2: Technological Development - Two main technological routes for green methanol production are being pursued simultaneously, with green electricity-based methanol production expected to maintain a dominant position due to its cost reduction potential [1] Group 3: Market Demand and Policy Support - Although the voting on the IMO net-zero framework has been postponed, the decarbonization goals for the shipping industry remain unchanged, leading to a gradual formation of downstream demand [1] - Short-term catalysts include the implementation of ongoing projects and policy support, while long-term growth opportunities are driven by technological cost reduction and supply-demand coordination [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities span across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, focusing on leading companies in each segment [1] - The strategy involves capturing short-term benefits from "capacity implementation + policy dividends" and long-term positioning for "technological cost reduction + supply-demand synergy" to effectively respond to policy fluctuations and seize industry growth opportunities [1]