Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-25 00:10Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 200 points, closing at 46,448.27, a gain of 0.44% [2] - The market anticipates an increased probability of the Federal Reserve lowering the federal funds rate in December, leading investors to temporarily set aside concerns about overvalued tech stocks [2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 3.50%, indicating a decline in medium to long-term bond yields [2] Stock Performance - Technology stocks surged, with notable gains: Tesla up 6.8%, Amazon up 2.5%, Meta up 3.2%, Apple up 1.6%, Nvidia up 2.0%, Oracle up 0.7%, and Microsoft up 0.4% [3] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, saw a significant increase of 6.3%, nearing a market capitalization of $4 trillion, driven by optimism regarding its position in the AI race and the release of its upgraded AI model, Gemini 3 [3] - Broadcom rose 11%, the largest gain among S&P 500 and Nasdaq components, following an upgrade in target price from HSBC [3] - Baidu's stock increased by 7.4% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to "overweight," citing growth potential in its cloud and AI business [3] Economic Data and Predictions - The Dallas Fed's November manufacturing index fell from -5.0 in October to -10.4, indicating a widening contraction in factory activity [4] - Following a six-week government shutdown, delayed economic data suggested a weakening labor market, bolstering investor optimism for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [4] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated an increase in the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, rising from 71% to 80.9% [4] Upcoming Economic Releases - Investors are anticipating the release of delayed economic data, including retail sales, producer price index (PPI), and consumer confidence indices [6] - The third-quarter earnings season is nearing completion, with 83% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, leading to an upward revision of total earnings growth forecast to 14.7% [6] - The holiday shopping season is set to begin, with the National Retail Federation projecting holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion for the first time [6] Commodity Performance - International oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude oil rising 1.34% to $58.84 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing 1.29% to $63.37 per barrel, amid ongoing concerns regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [7] - Gold prices saw a slight increase, with December COMEX gold futures rising 0.37% to $4,130.80 per ounce [8]