Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for the A-share market in 2026 highlights the integration of policy dividends and industrial opportunities, with a focus on two main lines and two auxiliary lines [1] Group 1: Main Lines of Investment - Main Line 1: The unprecedented global changes are accelerating, with a shift in domestic economic logic towards new productive forces, emphasizing key areas such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace [1] - Main Line 2: The gradual implementation of anti-involution policies, combined with supply-demand structure optimization and price recovery expectations, is expected to lead to a clear profit recovery path in the manufacturing and resource sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Environment for 2026 - Overseas Perspective: The Trump administration may refocus on economic growth amid midterm election pressures, with a cooling labor market and persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle throughout 2026, with higher expectations for cuts in the second half of the year [2] - Domestic Perspective: China's macro policies are anticipated to maintain continuity and stability, with resilient economic growth and inflation expected to recover from low levels under the influence of expanding domestic demand and anti-involution policies [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to strengthen reform policy expectations, with supportive price factors like the upward trend of the RMB exchange rate enhancing liquidity and boosting market confidence [3] - A-share valuations are currently in a relatively reasonable range, and the improvement in the fundamentals of listed companies is expected to become a key focus for the market in 2026, driven by the deepening of economic transformation and the continuous development of emerging industries [3] Group 4: Style Judgments - Small-cap stocks are expected to perform well, particularly in the first three quarters of 2026, as the Fed's rate cuts and the upward trend of emerging industries enhance market risk appetite [4] - Growth stocks are projected to continue leading in earnings growth compared to value stocks, with favorable conditions for equity asset valuations due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [4]
银河证券2026年A股市场投资展望：“十五五”规划开局之年 重点关注“两条主线+两条辅助线”
智通财经网·2025-11-25 00:18