肉羊养殖效益持续回升

Core Insights - The average wholesale price of lamb in China has increased to 62.56 yuan per kilogram as of November 21, 2023, marking a 0.66% rise from 62.15 yuan per kilogram on September 30, 2023, indicating a potential end to a four-year decline in lamb prices [1] - The decline in lamb prices since 2021 has reversed in 2023, with lamb prices and farming profitability showing signs of recovery, reaching median levels not seen since 2017 [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The lamb price has been in a downward cycle since 2021, but has started to recover in 2023, with the price increase observed for two consecutive months [1] - The average profit for farmers selling lambs has increased from 32.08 yuan per lamb in the first ten months of the year to 44.19 yuan in October [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The upward trend in lamb prices is primarily attributed to a reduction in production capacity, with a projected 6.8% decrease in lamb stock to 300 million by the end of 2024 [2] - Lamb production is expected to decline by 2.5% in 2024, with a total output of 5.18 million tons, following a 4.3% decrease in production in the first three quarters of 2023 [2] Group 3: Import and Consumption Factors - Lamb imports are also decreasing, with a forecasted 15.5% drop to 36.7 million tons in 2024, and a cumulative import of 27.6 million tons in the first nine months of 2023 [2] - There is significant potential for growth in lamb consumption, especially during the winter season and upcoming holidays, with demand expected to increase by 20% compared to normal periods [3]