美联储官员连续放“鸽”，降息预期升温，金价强势拉升

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially dropping below $4040 due to easing geopolitical tensions, but later surged by 1.33% to $4133.8 per ounce, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices fluctuated over $100 during the trading session, closing at $4133.8 per ounce on the COMEX [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) rose by 0.25%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) remained flat [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that most private sector data shows a weak job market, advocating for a rate cut in December [1] - Waller also mentioned that September employment data might be revised downwards, suggesting a lack of positive hiring signals from businesses [1] - Fed's Daly expressed support for a December rate cut, citing a higher likelihood of sudden job market deterioration compared to a rapid rise in inflation [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has increased to 82.9%, up from 69.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate stands at 17.1% [1] - Bart Melek from TD Securities noted that the market increasingly believes in a December rate cut by the Fed, enhancing gold's appeal as a zero-yield asset amid declining real rates and moderate inflation expectations [1]