PTA行情是否阶段触顶？

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market has experienced fluctuations, with recent price increases attributed to cost support and inventory reduction, but the outlook suggests a potential peak due to weakening demand and rising inventory levels [1][3][6] Group 1: PTA Market Dynamics - Recent PTA prices have risen, reaching a high not seen since early September, driven by cost support and inventory reduction [1] - The operating rate of PTA production facilities decreased by 4 percentage points from November 10 to November 20, while downstream polyester operating rates only fell by about 1 percentage point, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [1][3] - As of November 20, the average PTA processing fee from July to November was 198 yuan/ton, indicating a production loss situation for PTA [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The decline in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical negotiations, is expected to weaken cost support for PTA, leading to a higher probability of a market peak [3][5][6] - The expectation of increased inventory in January and February 2024 is likely to dominate market sentiment, with historical data showing inventory levels between 830,000 to 900,000 tons during this period [3][6] - Despite four months of continuous inventory reduction, the spot market remains significantly lower than futures prices, indicating a lack of tight supply conditions [3][6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The OPEC+ plan to gradually increase oil production from October 2025 is expected to shift the oil supply outlook from anticipated shortages to actual oversupply, further diminishing upward pressure on oil prices [5] - Concerns remain regarding potential geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply, particularly involving Venezuela, which could impact oil prices if conflicts arise [5]