市场风偏提高，郑糖估值低反弹上修

Group 1 - The total sugar production in the US for the 2025/26 season is projected to be 9.319 million short tons, with beet sugar at 5.211 million short tons and cane sugar at 4.108 million short tons, and the sugar inventory-to-consumption ratio is estimated at 15% [1] - As of November 19, 2025/26 season, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India have commenced operations, processing 11.727 million tons of sugarcane and producing 868,100 tons of sugar [1] - The ICE raw sugar March contract rose by 8 points to 14.85 cents per pound, while the London white sugar March contract increased by $1.5 to $425.6 per ton, indicating a bullish market trend [1] Group 2 - The Zhengzhou sugar January contract increased by 7 yuan per ton, closing at 5,377 yuan per ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - In the spot market, new sugar prices from Guangxi range from 5,590 to 5,650 yuan per ton, while trade prices are between 5,450 and 5,550 yuan per ton, indicating a noticeable price adjustment but insufficient purchasing volume [2] - As of the 24th, 17 sugar mills in Guangxi have started operations, with upward price movement constrained by spot market conditions, and the focus remains on the supply pressure from domestic and processed sugar in the medium to long term [2]