五矿证券：碳化硅高速增长的前夕 功率渗透率提升与AI+AR双轮驱动

Core Viewpoint - Silicon Carbide (SiC) is identified as a key support for technological upgrades and efficiency revolutions, with significant applications in high-growth industries such as renewable energy, AI, communications, and AR [1] Renewable Energy Sector - SiC is crucial for achieving high energy efficiency, with a projected demand of approximately 5.77 million pieces of SiC substrates by 2030 for "new energy vehicles + charging piles + solar storage," reflecting a CAGR of about 36.7% [2] - In the electric vehicle sector, the penetration rate of 800V high-voltage platforms is expected to reach 11.17% by 2025, with SiC MOSFETs reducing overall vehicle energy consumption by 8%-10% [2] - For high-voltage DC charging piles, 100,000 high-power charging piles are expected to be built by 2027, with a demand for 510,000 SiC substrates globally by 2030 [2] - In the solar storage sector, SiC will enhance the efficiency of photovoltaic inverters and energy storage converters, with a projected demand of 940,000 SiC substrates globally by 2030 [2] AI Industry - SiC is poised for dual growth opportunities in "power + heat dissipation," with a projected demand of 730,000 SiC substrates in the power supply sector by 2030 [3] - In data centers, SiC will address the high heat generation of GPUs, with a demand of approximately 6.2 million substrates for AI chips by 2030 [3] - If SiC is utilized in both the substrate and heat sink materials in CoWoS processes, the substrate demand in the AI chip cooling sector could double [3] Communication and RF Sector - The upgrade of RF devices driven by 5G-A and 6G technologies will see GaN-on-SiC solutions becoming mainstream, with a projected demand of 170,000 semi-insulating SiC substrates globally by 2030 [4] - The AR glasses sector is expected to require 3.89 million substrates by 2030, with SiC's high refractive index making it an ideal base material for optical waveguides [4] - The overall demand for SiC substrates is expected to reach 16.76 million pieces by 2030, with a potential supply gap of approximately 12 million pieces compared to 2025 supply levels [4] - The three core growth points identified are AI intermediary layers, new energy vehicles, and AR glasses, with projected demand shares of 37%, 26%, and 23% respectively by 2030 [4]