2025年蛋鸡养殖行业利润跌至近五年最低水平，预计2026年或将有所回暖

Core Viewpoint - The domestic egg-laying chicken farming industry faced unprecedented challenges in 2025, with a significant drop in profitability due to falling egg prices, despite a slight decrease in production costs. The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential recovery in profitability driven by a rise in egg prices and a decrease in supply [1][9]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Market Conditions - The egg-laying chicken farming industry was in a profitable cycle from 2021 to 2024, with average profits exceeding 0.50 yuan per pound. However, in 2025, profitability sharply declined, with average profits per pound dropping over 90% year-on-year from January to October, marking the lowest average profit level in five years [1][9]. - The decline in egg prices was the primary factor affecting profitability, despite production costs remaining low [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Seasonal demand for eggs weakened, limiting the potential for demand growth. Direct consumption slightly increased, but overall demand was constrained by low prices of pork, broiler chickens, and vegetables, which reduced market acceptance of high-priced eggs. Additionally, food processing companies reduced order volumes, leading to a limited increase in egg demand [3]. - The average daily shipment of eggs from production areas increased slightly by 1.15% year-on-year from January to October 2025, but overall supply remained ample while demand support was weak, resulting in egg prices dropping over 20% year-on-year [3]. Production and Cost Factors - The high profitability in 2023-2024 led to increased enthusiasm for breeding, with total chick sales continuing to rise in 2024-2025. The average number of laying hens in production reached a five-year high, with a year-on-year increase of over 5% [4]. - Although feed costs slightly decreased due to lower prices for corn and soybean meal, this reduction was insufficient to offset the significant drop in income, leading to a continued decline in overall profitability [6]. Future Outlook for 2026 - The egg-laying chicken farming industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability in 2026, driven by a decrease in supply and a potential increase in egg prices due to traditional holiday demand and a recovery in restaurant consumption [8]. - The supply of laying hens is projected to decrease, which may alleviate some supply pressure. Egg prices are expected to rise by over 2% year-on-year, while feed costs may continue to decline by 1-2% [8][9]. - Overall, average profitability for egg-laying chicken farming is anticipated to improve by 0.10-0.20 yuan per pound in 2026, although the recovery process will still be influenced by factors such as culling rates and external market fluctuations [9].