国债期货：资金面继续转松 期债延续窄幅震荡

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.15% at 115.760 yuan, the 10-year main contract up 0.06% at 108.505 yuan, the 5-year main contract up 0.03% at 105.890 yuan, and the 2-year main contract up 0.01% at 102.418 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with slight fluctuations. As of the report, the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield remained at 1.8740%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield remained at 1.8125%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield increased by 0.05 basis points to 2.1590% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 338.7 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 24, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted. On the same day, 283 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed a relaxed funding condition, with major term repo rates stabilizing at low levels. The overnight repo rate for deposit institutions slightly decreased to around 1.32% [2] Operational Recommendations - Since October, the resumption of government bond trading and weak fundamentals have led to a rebound in the bond market. However, by mid-November, despite stock market fluctuations, the bond market did not continue to strengthen significantly due to weak expectations for further easing [3] - The short-term bond market is in a range-bound phase, with the 10-year government bond active coupon 250016.IB expected to fluctuate between 1.8% and 1.82%, and the 30-year active coupon rate expected to fluctuate between 2.14% and 2.17% [3] - Factors that may break the current range include the implementation of new redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond purchase scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. A range trading strategy is recommended, with an emphasis on accelerating the pace of position shifting for short investors as the month-end approaches [3]