PTA：供需格局近强远弱 PTA反弹空间受限

Market Overview - On November 24, PTA futures experienced a rise followed by a decline, with a general atmosphere of negotiation in the spot market. The spot basis strengthened, and some polyester factories made offers. Mainstream suppliers provided forward cargoes, with trading in the range of 4590 to 4665 for the 01 contract [1] - The processing fee for PTA spot reached approximately 212 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2601 and TA2603 contracts were 244 yuan/ton and 253 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - As of November 21, PTA operating rates were reduced to 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. In contrast, polyester operating rates increased to around 91.3%, an increase of 1% [3] - On November 24, the price of polyester yarn saw a slight increase, although overall sales remained weak. The gradual lifting of BIS certification restrictions in India led to increased inquiries from Indian customers, resulting in a rise in exports of FDY fine denier yarn. Current factory inventories are low, but downstream sales have declined, leading to stable prices for polyester yarn. Future attention will be on downstream sales and the status of India's BIS certification [3] Price Outlook - With two PTA units in East China undergoing maintenance and the expected delay in domestic demand support for polyester, coupled with the cancellation of India's BIS certification, PTA exports are expected to increase. This indicates a significant recovery in PTA supply and demand expectations, with a phase of basis recovery for PTA [4] - The supply-demand outlook for PTA is expected to be tight from November to December, but overall, it is anticipated to be loose from December to the first quarter. Absolute prices for PTA are currently supported by oil demand and the cancellation of India's BIS certification, although the overall support from oil prices is limited, restricting the rebound potential for PTA [4] - The strategy suggests a short-term high-level fluctuation for TA, with the possibility of a phase of low-level positive spread [4]