智通财经网·2025-11-25 02:35Core Viewpoint - The light industry in China is expected to benefit from favorable policies since 2025, providing solid support for healthy industry development. The home furnishing sector is particularly focused on the catalytic effect of national subsidies on company performance, while the overall industry demand is under pressure during the downturn cycle, leading to historically low valuations, although there are investment opportunities in specific segments [1]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector has been impacted by the reduction of national subsidies in Q3, resulting in overall performance pressure. However, the soft home furnishing industry shows greater resilience compared to custom home furnishing. Looking ahead, the return of national subsidies in Q4 is expected to further stimulate downstream demand [2]. - Custom home furnishing companies are actively seeking self-rescue strategies amid demand pressure, while the soft home furnishing sector is accelerating AI product development, with the smart mattress market projected to reach nearly 60 billion yuan by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2030 [2]. Packaging - The competitive landscape in the packaging industry is improving, with the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Orijin leading to a near 80% market share among the top three players in the two-piece can packaging sector. Historical data shows that after the last round of industry consolidation (2017-2019), the industry's gross profit margin rebounded to over 10% [3]. - The industry is expected to see a recovery in average prices by 2026, which will enhance the profitability of leading companies. In the flexible packaging segment, leading companies are expanding their client base and diversifying their business to include higher-margin products, thus creating a second growth curve [3]. Toys - The toy market in China is projected to reach 165.5 billion yuan by 2028, capturing 16.7% of the global toy market share. The rise of Generation Z and the growing "self-pleasure" culture are driving the expansion of artistic IPs, such as the Pop Mart The Monster series, which are gaining international influence [4]. - In the first half of 2025, overseas revenues for Pop Mart and Blokus increased by 440% and 895% year-on-year, respectively, with strong performance in Southeast Asian markets, indicating a rapid acceleration in cultural export and new opportunities in the trendy toy industry [4].