Group 1: Copper - The supply-demand imbalance for copper is becoming evident, with the price center expected to rise due to tight copper concentrate supply and surging green demand [1] - Global copper mine grades are declining, and long-term insufficient capital expenditure has limited new mining projects, contributing to a tight copper concentrate market [1] - Demand for copper is supported by investments in electricity, new energy vehicles, and data center construction, driven by global monetary easing and green transition trends [1] - Recommended companies to focus on include Zijin Mining (601899.SH) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), which have rich resource reserves and clear capacity planning [1] Group 2: Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is tight, with domestic capacity capped at 45 million tons and limited new capacity, while overseas production progress is slow [2] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum shows structural resilience, and prices are expected to rise due to rigid supply, low inventory, and cost support [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be around 22,000 yuan/ton by 2026, with increasing profitability leading companies to raise dividend ratios [2] - Key companies to watch include Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ), Mingtai Aluminum (601677.SH), and Shenhuo Group (000933.SZ) [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - The value of gold as an investment is highlighted amid the Fed's policy shift and ongoing global macro uncertainties [3] - Silver, with both industrial and monetary properties, shows stronger price elasticity during liquidity easing cycles [3] - The gold-silver ratio is expected to decline from around 100 in May 2025 to about 80 by November 2025, indicating potential for downward correction [3] - Recommended investment opportunities include Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), and Shengda Resources (000603.SZ) [3] Group 4: Superhard Materials - Traditional demand for superhard products is under pressure, leading the industry into a downturn [4] - However, breakthroughs in functional diamond technology are opening new growth opportunities, particularly in high-end chip cooling applications [4] - Companies to focus on include Guoji Precision (002046.SZ), which has made progress in functional diamonds, and Sifangda (300179.SZ), which has large-scale CVD diamond production lines [4]
中原证券:维持有色金属及新材料行业“强于大市”评级 建议关注铜、铝、黄金和超硬材料板块