上证180ETF指数基金(530280)涨近1%，机构称A股盈利周期底部拐点或已迈

Core Insights - The A-share market is showing signs of a potential recovery in the earnings cycle, with a significant probability of an increase in earnings indicators for Q3 2025, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of A-share profits [2] - The Shanghai 180 Index has seen a rise of 0.96%, with notable increases in stocks such as Shengyi Technology and Zhongjin Gold, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.29% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among a few key players [3] Market Performance - As of November 25, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.96%, with significant gains in stocks like Shengyi Technology (up 6.91%) and Zhongjin Gold (up 5.66%) [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund also increased by 0.68%, reflecting a positive trend in the broader market [1] Earnings Outlook - The earnings growth for the entire A-share market is projected to be 4.78% in 2025 and 10.98% in 2026, with net profit growth expected to be 10.70% and 17.94% respectively, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [2] - Historical data suggests that when the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive, A-share revenue growth tends to show significant elasticity, with past instances in 2016 and 2020 leading to substantial revenue increases [2] Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer sectors are expected to exhibit more resilience in growth compared to other sectors [2] - The upstream sectors are predicted to see revenue growth primarily driven by non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals in 2025, with a potential turnaround in net profit growth by 2026 [2]