小摩：若无减产干预，油价或跌至30美元！

Group 1 - JPMorgan analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will average between $57 and $58 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, with a potential drop to around $30 per barrel unless production cuts are implemented [1] - The firm estimates that global oil supply will exceed demand, with supply growth in 2025 and 2026 expected to be three times that of demand growth, slowing to about one-third of the current rate by 2027 [1] - JPMorgan anticipates that the market will balance through a combination of rising demand driven by falling prices and voluntary and involuntary production cuts, warning that without intervention, the outlook for 2027 could see Brent crude averaging $42 per barrel, dropping to over $30 by year-end [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts a daily increase in global oil demand of 900,000 barrels in 2025, reaching 105.5 million barrels, with a similar increase in 2026, followed by an acceleration to 1.2 million barrels in 2027 [2] - Following four consecutive days of decline, crude oil futures rose, supported by a rebound in the stock market and increasing expectations of a rate cut in December by the U.S. [2] - New sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil companies have triggered a chain reaction that could have raised oil prices, but the market is currently focused on peace negotiations regarding Russia and Ukraine [2]