美国COMEX铜库存创历史新高 铜市迎来关键时刻

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a significant shift due to record-high inventories and changing monetary policy expectations, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [1] Group 1: Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of November 21, COMEX copper inventories reached 402,876 short tons, surpassing the previous record of 399,458 short tons set in January 2003, with this year's inventory increasing threefold [1] - The current inventory level exceeds the combined total of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories, indicating a notable restructuring of the global copper supply chain driven by policy expectations and arbitrage activities [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Following dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, including support for a potential interest rate cut in December from both San Francisco Fed President Daly and New York Fed President, market expectations for a rate cut have surged, alleviating liquidity concerns [1] - CME data shows an 81% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which has provided some support to copper prices, leading to a slight rebound of 0.19% [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Yide Futures suggest that copper concentrate supply remains tight, with growth lagging behind the increase in refined copper production and consumption [1] - The copper market is expected to continue experiencing high volatility in the short term, with prices stabilizing at elevated levels, but lacking new macroeconomic or fundamental catalysts for significant upward or downward movement [1]