基本面短期内平衡 预计铁矿石震荡略偏强运行

Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market showed mostly positive performance, with iron ore futures opening at 791.0 yuan/ton and reaching a high of 800.0 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.08% [1] - Satellite data indicates that from November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.317 million tons, a significant decrease of 1.536 million tons, marking the lowest inventory level since the beginning of the year [1] - In the third week of November 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments totaled 25.5221 million tons, down from 33.4844 million tons in November of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 1.823 million tons, an increase of 3.44% compared to last November [1] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in iron ore prices are largely influenced by coking coal prices, which have weakened due to domestic supply stabilization policies and the resumption of coal shipments from Mongolia, thereby supporting iron ore prices through improved steel mill profits [2] - The iron ore market is currently balanced in the short term, with high shipment volatility and stable iron water production, while structural shortages in medium-grade ore resources are leading to tight deliverable resources, resulting in strong spot prices and widening basis [2] - Macro factors such as strong employment data from the U.S. and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve have dampened expectations for a rate cut in December, putting pressure on risk asset prices [2]