现金流ETF（159399）连续10日净流入超6.1亿元，市场关注自由现金流改善逻辑

Core Insights - After entering the industrialization maturity phase in 2018, there has been a notable increase in investor focus on free cash flow (FCFF) in China, with significant enhancement in excess returns from industries with improved FCFF [1] - The current "anti-involution" policy is driving a contraction in manufacturing CAPEX, leading to a "passive improvement" in free cash flow through reduced capital expenditures and working capital [1] - Cross-border capital repatriation is expected to boost EBIT in manufacturing and consumer sectors, resulting in "active improvement" [1] Group 1: Free Cash Flow Dynamics - Industries such as resources, consumption, and light asset technology (computers/media) are experiencing significant excess returns when both "active improvement" (EBIT increase) and "passive improvement" (CAPEX/working capital reduction) occur simultaneously [1] - Heavy asset technology (electronics/communications) and growth-stage manufacturing are facing temporary deterioration in FCFF due to CAPEX expansion, but EBIT improvements can still yield excess returns [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The essence of the manufacturing "anti-involution" is to repair cash flow through both revenue enhancement (EBIT increase) and cost reduction (CAPEX contraction), with signs of improvement already visible in sectors like new energy and cement [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to cash flow ETFs (159399), which have outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The underlying index of the cash flow ETF focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments [1]