智通财经网·2025-11-25 07:01Core Viewpoint - HSBC Global Investment Research has initiated coverage on Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) with a "Hold" rating and a target price of $85, indicating that the negative impact from the ASIC business will be offset by growth in the AI optical business [1] Group 1: ASIC Business Insights - The demand for ASICs is expected to increase, with the share of ASICs in the capital expenditure (Capex) of hyperscale vendors projected to rise from 2% in 2023 to 13% by 2027, driven by significant Capex guidance increases from these vendors [1] - Marvell Technology is anticipated to face increased competition from Broadcom (AVGO.US), which has a clearer product roadmap for ASICs [1] - Marvell's ASIC revenue for the fiscal year 2027 is estimated at $2 billion, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth, which is 10% lower than the market consensus of $2.3 billion [2] Group 2: AI Optical Business Insights - Despite the challenges in the ASIC segment, Marvell's leadership in the AI optical market, driven by DSP chips, remains a significant revenue source [2] - HSBC forecasts Marvell's optical revenue for fiscal year 2027 to be $2.5 billion, representing a 38% year-over-year growth, which is 14% higher than the market consensus of $2.2 billion [2] - The growth in optical revenue is attributed to the expanding total addressable market (TAM) for 800G and the gradual ramp-up of 1.6T solutions [2] Group 3: Overall Revenue Projections - HSBC estimates Marvell's total data center revenue for fiscal year 2027 to be $7.1 billion, indicating an 18% year-over-year growth, consistent with market expectations and the company's guidance [3]