伦敦金冲上4155！降息概率飙至81%

Group 1 - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly increased to 81% following statements from Waller and Daly [2] - A series of economic data releases this week, including retail sales, employment indicators, and core PCE, will be crucial in influencing policy direction and market sentiment [2] - If economic data continues to show weakness, expectations for an early rate cut will be further reinforced, potentially increasing bets on this outcome [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is gradually reintroducing easing policies while ending the balance sheet reduction process, providing strong support for the stability of the U.S. Treasury market [3] - Despite the Fed's cautious approach to loosening policies amid high inflation, this stance has somewhat maintained market confidence in the Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target [3] - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at nearly $30 trillion, holds a unique position in the global financial system, emphasizing the importance of the dollar's credibility [3] Group 3 - Gold prices opened at $4133, dipped to $4122, and then rebounded to $4155 before entering a correction phase [4] - The technical analysis indicates that if gold prices stabilize in the 20-30 range and rebound, the 55-60 area will be a critical resistance level [4] - A successful breakout above the 60 level could lead to accelerated gains for gold, potentially reaching the 80-90 high [4]