比特币抛压现缓和迹象 市场押注本轮跌势接近尾声

Core Viewpoint - Recent heavy selling pressure on Bitcoin appears to be easing, raising hopes that the current downturn may be nearing its end, with Bitcoin hovering around $88,000 after previously hitting a seven-month low [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - Bitcoin's recent decline has led to significant position liquidations, causing the overall digital asset market to lose over $1 trillion in value [1] - Despite a slight rebound, Bitcoin is on track to record its worst monthly performance since 2022, with Bitcoin ETFs facing severe monthly outflows [1] - The cost of purchasing downside protection in the Bitcoin options market has significantly decreased, indicating reduced market tension and investor expectations of a bottom [1][4] Group 2: Indicators and Analysis - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is currently at 32, suggesting that the asset is oversold, as levels below 30 typically indicate such conditions [1] - The implied volatility of Bitcoin options has returned to levels seen in April, coinciding with a previous sell-off triggered by tariff news [1] - Data shows that over $6 billion has flowed out of global cryptocurrency exchange-traded products since November, marking the largest monthly outflow on record since 2018 [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - Renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are driving up risk assets, including Bitcoin, with an 80.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [7][8] - Comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a greater concern over a weakening labor market, which may influence the decision to lower rates [7] - Market participants are in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed's decision, with long-term holders reluctant to sell at current levels [8]