PAB(SZ:000001) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-25 07:05Global Macro Environment - The global macro environment in 2025 is characterized by increased uncertainty, particularly in overseas markets, while China remains committed to high-quality development, providing a sense of certainty for investors [3] - Major economies are experiencing a divergence in economic cycles, with heightened policy uncertainty negatively impacting the US economy, as noted by OECD and IMF [3] - Global monetary policies are showing differentiation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its stance while the European Central Bank continues to lower rates, and the Bank of Japan has initiated rate hikes [3] - Ongoing geopolitical complexities, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, highlight the importance of security and stability in the international landscape [3] Industry Trends - The new quality productivity sector is identified as a key area for future growth, with significant investment opportunities in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles [6][7] - China's AI sector is gaining global attention, with advancements in domestic computing power and a focus on applications like smart driving and humanoid robots [6] - The semiconductor industry is increasingly self-sufficient, with competitive domestic companies emerging since 2019, indicating a strengthening of the overall supply chain [6] - The new energy vehicle sector is highlighted for its global competitiveness, with traditional automakers accelerating their smart driving initiatives [6] - The biopharmaceutical sector is witnessing a transformation, with domestic innovative drugs gaining recognition and achieving commercial breakthroughs [6] Capital Market Reform - The capital market is positioned as a crucial support for economic transformation, with a focus on maintaining stability and promoting high-quality development [8] - Reforms in the A-share market are aimed at enhancing support for the real economy, particularly in technology and innovation sectors, through initiatives like the Science and Technology Innovation Board [8] - The bond market is also evolving, with the introduction of a "technology board" to improve service capabilities for technological innovation [8] - Increased participation of medium- and long-term funds and the deepening of public fund reforms are seen as stabilizing forces in the market [8] Asset Allocation - In the context of global asset volatility, the attractiveness of RMB assets is increasing, with the A-share market showing steady progress and expanding profit potential [10] - Key investment themes for the medium to long term include sectors benefiting from new quality productivity, such as AI, biomedicine, military, and smart driving [10] - Industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, including photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and traditional cyclical sectors like steel and coal, are also highlighted [10] - New consumer trends in home appliances and emerging consumption themes are expected to develop steadily, supported by policy and consumption upgrades [10]