降还是不降？美联储正经历最分裂的降息周期

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a complex and uncertain policy environment, with significant internal divisions affecting its decision-making process regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Group 1: Policy Background - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 50 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in response to signs of weakness in the labor market [2] - Inflation pressures remain persistent, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.0% year-on-year as of September, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index around 2.8%, still above the 2% long-term target [2] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, indicating a weakening job market [2] Group 2: Dovish Camp - Dovish voices, led by New York Fed President Williams, emphasize rising employment risks and diminishing inflation risks, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in December [3] - Williams estimates that tariffs contribute approximately 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to CPI but does not foresee second-round effects on inflation [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly warns of a fragile balance in the job market, advocating for a December rate cut due to the risk of "non-linear deterioration" in employment [4] Group 3: Hawkish Camp - Hawkish voices, such as Boston Fed President Collins, argue that maintaining rates is more appropriate given inflation remains above target and employment is only moderately cooling [5] - Dallas Fed President Logan questions the necessity of previous rate cuts and insists on clear evidence of falling inflation or significant job deterioration before supporting another cut [5] - Logan's cautious stance is seen as a significant indicator of hawkish sentiment within the committee, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the December decision [5] Group 4: Mechanism Challenges - The upcoming FOMC meeting faces unprecedented operational challenges due to the absence of key economic data, complicating decision-making [6] - There is a risk of a historic tie in voting, which could result in the federal funds rate remaining unchanged if a 6:6 deadlock occurs [6] - The FOMC has experienced increasing dissent in recent meetings, indicating a shift towards a more democratic decision-making process that may lead to confusion and misinterpretation in the market [6] Group 5: Forward-Looking Scenarios - Market attention is focused on three potential scenarios for the December meeting: a 25 basis point cut, maintaining rates while signaling future actions, or a clear pause in rate cuts [7] - Regardless of the outcome, the December FOMC decision is seen as a pivotal moment in the Fed's transition towards a more transparent and deliberative institution [7] - The true direction of policy may not become clear until Q1 2026, with every official statement and data release acting as a catalyst for market re-evaluation [7]